Andy Burnham is contesting one of the most consequential by-elections in recent political memory. Much of the focus has understandably been on the implications for Keir Starmer’s premiership and Labour’s national prospects, but another story has received far less attention. 

Restore, a party established by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, is also challenging the Makerfield seat. Whilst their candidate is unlikely to win, they could shape the outcome by splitting the Reform vote and, in doing so, improve Labour’s chances. Polling from YouGov places Labour narrowly ahead of Reform, with Restore polling strongly enough that its vote share could prove decisive. 

This poses a serious challenge for Reform. Restore positions itself to their right and appears intent on pressuring the party from that flank. Reports from Makerfield suggest a campaign aimed less at winning outright and more at undermining Reform’s prospects. 

At first glance, this may appear counterproductive. Why would Restore risk helping Labour rather than backing a party that is, ideologically, far closer to its own position? 

Restore’s apparent objective is not necessarily immediate electoral success, but instead to pressure Reform into adopting harder positions, particularly on immigration. Many Restore supporters are former Reform voters who backed the party in 2024 but later concluded they had become too moderate on issues such as immigration. If Restore succeeds in disrupting Reform electorally, we may therefore see the party shift further to the right in an attempt to win back defectors. 

The 18 June contest could therefore prove to be an inflection point for two of Britain’s biggest parties. A Burnham victory could very easily lead to a change in Prime Minister. Equally, if Reform falls short because of Restore’s intervention, the party may conclude that reclaiming support on its right flank requires a revising of its ideological position. 

So much is up in the air here, with it being unclear how it will all land. Instability is the enemy of investor confidence, and Britain’s historically stable environment has been anything but for the last ten years. Planning and development professionals are going to need to be more agile and, in many areas, prepared for appeal when a change in the politics upends strategy. 

Iceni’s Strategic Engagement Team is able to help you navigate this instability and ensure your strategies have cross-party appeal. To find out more about how we can help with your projects, get in touch with Theo Taylor:  ttaylor@iceniprojects.com