This year, the forces of populism, like a glacier, are already carving new shapes into the world, from regime change in Venezuela abetted by Trump, to Greenland’s growing instability and Iran’s potential insurgency. How might these forces shape the UK? If Reform is our best example of populism leading the UK’s political discourse, could they barely make a dent? Already this month, we’ve seen one poll register Reform’s voting intention figures at 24%, their lowest since last April, and the welcome of Nadhim Zahawi, Andrew Rosindell and Robert Jenrick into their fold; former Conservatives with unspent ambitions to fulfil. If there is a growing perception of brand Reform diluting at the national level, I predict a parallel identity crisis will begin emerging at the local tier of government this year.

Reform will perform well at May’s local elections. All-up elections in places like Bexley will be fertile territory for Reform, and other places voting in 1/3rds like Rochford that prevent Reform from winning overall, but will enable them to govern in everything other than name. However, winning power is different from knowing how to then exercise it. Sworn-in Reform councillors will need to quickly learn pragmatism once the rubber hits the road making difficult decisions at odds with their grassroots voter base (see Kent Reform’s decision to increase council tax as an indication of problems ahead). In the face of a pro-growth NPPF, future Reform councils will find it difficult to resist the allure of NIMBY-ism by refusing applications to appease residents in the short term, risking losing public money on appeal costs in the longer-term by disgruntled applicants.

Reform also risks attracting councillors too ideological to manage. Independent Groups are a growing caucus in local government, fostered through political homeless, grouped around hyper-local, anti-development issues and appear to be wooed by the anti-establishment message Reform offers. Indeed many groups have switched to organise under the Reform banner as serving councillors (see Portsmouth, Tendring). However, attracting too many single-issue candidates creates future potential for in-fighting on where council spend is focussed, from bin collections to site allocations.

Reform political groups risk being too occupied with internal firefighting to deliver on manifesto promises. And that’s not even to mention the number of Conservative councillors joining Reform daily, who like Zahawi and Jenrick, see which way the pendulum of public opinion has swung.

Yet, by becoming all things to all people, what damage does this cause to Reform’s brand? Does Reform change from a coherent populist voice into a loose coalition of local causes? Will Reform voters accept a movement that feels less relevant to them over time? And if they don’t, will Reform councillors be united, or divided?

To understand how changes to the political landscape will impact your planning strategy, get in touch with Iceni’s Strategic Engagement team.