What does this mean for planning? Developers have long been able to navigate NOC councils (with Iceni’s support), provided political will exists to agree working arrangements that allow governing to continue.
No Overall Control: the planning risk hiding in this week’s elections
05 May 26
Expect a new acronym to dominate political discourse by the end of this week: NOC, otherwise known as No Overall Control.
While NOC councils are not new, the national picture of ambivalence towards mainstream political parties is, and its local impacts were masked by a quiet local election year in 2025. Whereas NOC councils are a symptom of Scotland’s single transferable vote system, in England and Wales it is the cause of voter apathy.
Since 2025, Reform has led the national polls and continues to do so at around 26%, despite fading from its peak last autumn. Meanwhile, Labour’s ongoing decline has seen polling fall from 23% to 18%, matching the Conservatives’ vote share, which has remained stubbornly level. The Liberal Democrats have edged down to 12%. The primary climbers have been the Greens, energised under Zack Polanski, rising from around 9% to 17%.
Why does any of this matter? Councils are, more or less, politically fixed for the years ahead from the last time voters went to the polls. In councils electing in thirds, national change is absorbed gradually, but in ‘all-out’ elections, authorities can change overnight. The 2025 results were a premonition of what may now come. While only 23 councils were up for election due to Local Government Reorganisation and with no districts voting, the number of NOC councils increased from seven to 10, matching Reform UK’s haul.
This year will be far more pronounced: 136 councils are up for election, with 38 currently under No Overall Control. Some councils will tilt back into single-party control and others will show clear winners in Reform or the Greens, but we can expect several more to fall into a pattern with multiple parties gaining seats and none securing an overall majority.
London may see the starkest changes. The capital has been immune from the NOC trend for four years because its boroughs last voted in 2022, when the national picture looked very different.
That immunity is now about to end. Four years of political volatility could be priced into London’s local government in a single night, with YouGov MRP polling suggesting that half of London boroughs are now fragmented enough to make NOC outcomes plausible.
What does this mean for planning? Developers have long been able to navigate NOC councils (with Iceni’s support), provided political will exists to agree working arrangements that allow governing to continue.
Elmbridge in Surrey has seen an unofficial ‘anything but Conservatives’ approach to coalition building, while Tory-Reform working arrangements in Warwickshire show difficult alliances are possible. But in a more fractured landscape, goodwill is increasingly in short supply. Bedford Council offers one glimpse into the future, where divided Liberal Democrats, Labour and Conservatives passed a budget with only 16 votes out of 43. For planning, the risk is that some councils do not just move into No Overall Control, but move closer to no control at all.
Iceni’s Strategic Engagement team helps clients understand local political risk, build support for development, and navigate complex decision-making environments. If you are promoting a scheme in a politically sensitive borough, or want to understand what this week’s elections could mean for your project, please get in touch with Charlie Gilmartin or Theo Taylor.
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No Overall Control: the planning risk hiding in this week’s elections
05 May 26 | Charlie Gilmartin
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The Benefits of Strategic Regeneration Frameworks as catalysts for growth
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Local Elections – A Preview
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